Roulston Retail Partner Craig Johnson’s Back-To-School Forecast Accuracy

October 10, 2011

Roulston Research Retail Partner Craig Johnson creates Annual, Holiday, and Back-To-School Forecasts that have been extremely accurate over the years. This June Craig was very optimistic on BTS 2011 while others expected consumer spending to slow based on high unemployment, political concerns, etc. He predicted that BTS 2011 sales would increase 6.2% year over year, which was more optimistic than any of his competition. His reports discuss the retail environment from a macroeconomic perspective and provide aggregate and detailed sectoral forecasts across all major retail categories, including eCommerce/Direct to Consumer. He also reviews 30 of the nation’s top retailers and gives a detailed company analysis, providing insight into who will be the winners and the losers during that period of time.  Final BTS 2011 results came out Thursday of last week and were virtually exactly as Craig predicted, with total sales of those reporting up 7.7% for the July to September BTS season (and up 6% counting the folks eg. weaker WMT who don’t report monthly), confirming his preSeason June +6.2% forecast. Here are Craig’s (CGP stands for Consumer Growth Partners) numbers versus the consensus and the actual results (total sales):

             Consensus       CGP       Actual

BKE:          +6%           11.1          11.7

ZUMZ:        +13%         16.9          14.5

 ROST:        +7%           9.5           9.4

 JWN:         +12             12.8        13.5

 GPS:          +1%           -0.7%      -0.6%

Craig’s annual holiday forecast will be discussed in a conference call on Friday October 21st at 2 PM Eastern. He will recap Back-to-School 2011, past holiday forecast accuracy, and give a holiday preview on his call. If you would like to dial-in for this conference call or learn more about Craig’s Holiday Forecast please contact Michael Igelnik at (216)765-0519 or migelnik@roulstonresearch.com.

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