>Tatum/Roulston Report

April 16, 2010

>The Tatum survey this month was a breakout. Although we have seen steady improvement over the last year from the cliff drop in late 2008 and 1q 09, this month was unarguable and most importantly it seems we have finally reached a point where Fed easing is finally leading to banks loosening the reins. With the prospects of financing now seemingly becoming available the prospects of improvement in backlogs, capital spending and employment now seem much more probable and are now more widespread in improvement being recognized across more regions and industries. The fact is that once visibility is perceived in financing it creates a domino effect on overall growth prospects. When the backlog trend becomes more lasting more companies start considering how they are going to grow.

We still take an approach that this downturn had a more significant psychological impact as corporations in general saw a sudden double digit drop when the slowdown hit, banks halted virtually all forms of lending and the consumer was shocked into near panic. This emotion and memory from this shock is not going to go away easily or lightly. The effect is like touching the hot stove and not forgetting the valuable lessons of our painful experience. We feel the slow recovery will continue to be challenged by political instability and the international effects. Investing into many industries and even small business investment in general is affected by Health Care concerns, potential tax implications and a general cloudiness of future predictability. We have stated very often before that market confidence has a direct correlation to visibility. As we now see banks seemingly opening the lending window the clouds clear slightly more. Now the future has one more positive variable but we still find when we talk to companies nobody wants to project trends past the next few months. The last few months nobody wanted to go past 30 days. So there is improvement.

To read the full Survey click here.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: